Analyzing Virginia Primary Results


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You this time 2000. Let's continue to talk politics with Robert Roberts political science professor at James Madison University. And will crunch the numbers a little bit as we look at the winners and losers from last night. Robert glad to have you here what he gets the what do you make of Corey Stewart so a victory. Over nick frayed as Cindy W Jackson last night. The expected in fact admire him a little smaller than most of the pundit and stuff thought it would be no. He won but with a narrow all narrow victory only about 5000 vote. And therefore. Are I'm actually really help them that much because I think all the pundits thought he would wins substantially. So if you had a chance to look district by district across state try to figure out. Where the core supporters are for Corey Stewart where he needs to come up. I'm sure those folks who voted for freight us. Q do well around afraid didn't cope every area and that central working area. He didn't do well he did well in the Steely Dan. Still didn't do well you have to these who could very well West Virginia where we expected him to do very well. He did fairly well in Northern Virginia. Helped mix the entire water. But if both those numbers were not that I'm expected I think what I expected it. How well. Credit that and we don't know whether there were any. Let the Democrats. Voting in the Republican primaries in and that could happen and he could add. The Democrats crossing over independent crossing over and voting against Stewart in that primary so that probably might have happened here. Yeah you wouldn't expect him to give up the chance to vote four of in the congressional primaries that there were hotly contested for them would you. There weren't a lot out there were only there weren't a lot of very hotly contested. A Democrat curry were yeah but not all and then their worry if you were pro pimple. And from the Fairfax County areas where there weren't really any contests up there. You might cross over into the I know people who went. And some and so you don't know but it Stewart won he deserves credit for that. To be very interesting that that race. Now Corey Stewart's been pretty bold he has said that he will be savidge in his attacks on Tim Kaine and that was one of the things that was very appealing I think for some Republican voters is they don't want. A milk toast candidate and they were very critical of Ed Gillespie in the last election Brack. For him. I am going along get along or tried to be very presentable and home. Is specially juxtapose against Donald Trump's attitude in Washington. What do you think there's a ruthless campaign. Here in Virginia work against a Tim Kaine. He suggests that when you start looking at this the patterns of voting over the last a few years in these statewide races. Independent I then turnout so all the election years. From the cycle. This cycle is going to be who would turn out traditionally. Because Prejean is the only state in the country that has major election every single year. And therefore. The likelihood is that a blast. Came in Democrats are able to turn out there voters. It could be got I'll I'll I'll raced much closer than many pundits might expect. In other words that turn out to the lowest turnout. Republicans are going to be very energized the base. And the Democrats have to pay for now their supporters primarily in Northern Virginia there's only one competitive house race. In Northern Virginia. That's the camp would get out toward B a western part of Northern Virginia. And so if you don't have competitive races that how can. Who might sit home and therefore. Stood hoping that in fact hit supporters will turn out. And that the Democrats for whatever reason won't get excited to help. Now we're talking to Robert Roberts political science professor Jay in new. What do you make of love Abigail stand burger and her victory now she faces Dave brass here in the seventh congressional district. I think that same district and in the Republican district you but it's becoming increasingly urban district. And so and many of this his position I think by trump. Are not exactly draft position free trade for Campbell I think Brad is considered a free trade. Because this economic background. And who is going to be interacting in terms of a hole whether she's going to people's good turn Al. Maybe coalition. Some Republicans. Democrats who might be unhappy with specific proposals of trump. Maybe you may not have Republicans who were. I'm happy overall. But they may be unhappy with them his position for triple free trade immigration and pepper. Let him hit batting race that you should stay here I mean is designed to be Republican state. Because the way that these blind guy thought but with the possibility that depending upon those issues. Some independents and Republicans may decide to sell. All or they may decide the cross we don't know who I truly fascinating. That things are. Now I'm loath to get into gender politics and race politics and the like but I don't think you can ignore the fact the Democrats did put up. A number of women and they are will be on the ballot do you we think that this becomes a really polarizing issue or unifying issue. For Democrats. In in the November cycle. Or for Democrats who becomes what they've Buick crossover issue in other words they believe that they can attract. Because they can attract. Independent Lebanon from Republican women the crossover. So they believe that that's the case now does that does it hurt Democrats in terms of the male the male vote no. Because. Though the white male vote tend to go heavily for Republicans anyhow. So I think with the Democrats believe particularly in these districts that they think they might have a chance and it can only help them in Africa. And really ask before you go I you know wanna be fair Tim Tim Kaine has been good has come on this program and I brought an I'm appreciative of that and I tell everybody I'm Republicans so I'm you know if you if you ever feel like I'm being unfair want John right mere call me. But that I have to ask do you think the Tim Kaine has any liabilities. Here in Virginia is there a series of bad votes is thereof and I gaffes that he's made it. Or is he still retain the popularity of the head that he had when he won back in what 2012 and when you won for governor. The police were the Roanoke poll that came out the day before yesterday. Had a with a one point late. And so. Hence the issue is not his popularity is the issue is turnout. In other words he have to get a higher turnout. In order to get those voters who are less inclined to build overall I could Biederman areas. So if it's not that he's unpopular if that the Democratic Party has an. The traditionally. More difficulty turning out their vote the Republicans have. And got things they're gonna be animated. With his last all religions and I'd I think we Mark Warner thought that was the case when he ran for reelection. And now they've very close race them. And I felt I think did it say they're going to be enemy but it's difficult to get people out from. A when you don't have a bear when he don't have. National racism sometimes so I would think it would come out but we don't know and thanking Mark Warner thought they would come out. And barely won that elect his reelection a few years ago we don't know. That's always the challenge getting people to the polls on both sides of the political spectrum Robert Roberts. Political science professor at James Madison University always appreciate you joining us and what an interest in morning to try to dissect the numbers thank you thank you.